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15/07/2016
A team at Imperial College London also claim that the epidemic cannot be contained with existing control measures.
The study, Countering Zika In Latin America, has been published in the journal Science.
As part of the study, Professor Neil Ferguson, lead author of the research from the School of Public Health at Imperial, alongside colleagues from the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial, looked at existing data for Zika transmission across Latin America.
Using this data, as well as data on similar viruses such as dengue, the team created a mathematical model to represent the current epidemic – as well as future waves of transmission.
They predicted that while there is a possibility of smaller outbreaks over the next few years, the next large-scale epidemic is unlikely to emerge for at least another 10 years. It was also calculated that the current Zika epidemic would end within two or three years as people are unlikely to be infected with the virus twice.
Professor Neil Ferguson explained: "This study uses all available data to provide an understanding of how the disease will unfold – and allows us to gauge the threat in the imminent future. Our analysis suggests that Zika spread is not containable, but that the epidemic will burn itself out within 2-3 years.
"The current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd immunity. Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice – thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it – the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained.
"Using our model, we predict large-scale transmission will not restart for at least another ten years – until there is a new generation in the population who have not been exposed to the Zika virus. This mirrors other epidemics, such as chikungunia – a similar virus to Zika – where we have seen explosive epidemics followed by long periods with few new cases."
Professor Ferguson added: "If our projections are correct, cases will have dropped substantially by the end of next year, if not sooner. This means by the time we have vaccines ready to be tested, there may not be enough cases of Zika in the community to test if the vaccine works."
He did suggest that an option could be to recruit 'sleeper sites' for vaccine trials across the globe. These centres would obtain, in advance, the lengthy legal and ethical approval needed for a trial. If there was then a Zika outbreak in its area, a centre would be ready to begin a vaccine trial straight away.
However, Professor Ferguson admitted that there are still many questions that need to be answered with regards to Zika virus.
"In a worst case scenario Zika would become endemic in Latin America in the long-term, which would mean smaller, frequent outbreaks," he said. "A key issue is we don't understand why the Zika virus affected Latin America in such an explosive way.
"One possibility is climate may have in some way aided spread of the virus, as spread coincided with an El Nino event. Genetic mutation of the virus might also have played a role, although early data currently give limited support for this hypothesis."
He added that more research is needed: "One research priority is to fully understand the extent of Zika transmission, and what proportion of people in Latin America – and across the globe have been infected.
"To do this we need to assess past exposure to Zika by testing blood from representative samples of at-risk populations for the presence of antibodies to the virus. We and other groups are working on such studies at the moment.
"There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers – and only through a coordinated global research effort will we find the answers we desperately need."
The work was funded by the Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the UK NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology at Imperial College London.
Further information regarding the research can be found here.
(JP/LM)
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Zika Epidemic 'Likely To Burn Out' – Study
Scientists have claimed that the Zika epidemic in Latin America is 'likely' to end within three years.A team at Imperial College London also claim that the epidemic cannot be contained with existing control measures.
The study, Countering Zika In Latin America, has been published in the journal Science.
As part of the study, Professor Neil Ferguson, lead author of the research from the School of Public Health at Imperial, alongside colleagues from the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial, looked at existing data for Zika transmission across Latin America.
Using this data, as well as data on similar viruses such as dengue, the team created a mathematical model to represent the current epidemic – as well as future waves of transmission.
They predicted that while there is a possibility of smaller outbreaks over the next few years, the next large-scale epidemic is unlikely to emerge for at least another 10 years. It was also calculated that the current Zika epidemic would end within two or three years as people are unlikely to be infected with the virus twice.
Professor Neil Ferguson explained: "This study uses all available data to provide an understanding of how the disease will unfold – and allows us to gauge the threat in the imminent future. Our analysis suggests that Zika spread is not containable, but that the epidemic will burn itself out within 2-3 years.
"The current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd immunity. Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice – thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it – the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained.
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"Using our model, we predict large-scale transmission will not restart for at least another ten years – until there is a new generation in the population who have not been exposed to the Zika virus. This mirrors other epidemics, such as chikungunia – a similar virus to Zika – where we have seen explosive epidemics followed by long periods with few new cases."
Professor Ferguson added: "If our projections are correct, cases will have dropped substantially by the end of next year, if not sooner. This means by the time we have vaccines ready to be tested, there may not be enough cases of Zika in the community to test if the vaccine works."
He did suggest that an option could be to recruit 'sleeper sites' for vaccine trials across the globe. These centres would obtain, in advance, the lengthy legal and ethical approval needed for a trial. If there was then a Zika outbreak in its area, a centre would be ready to begin a vaccine trial straight away.
However, Professor Ferguson admitted that there are still many questions that need to be answered with regards to Zika virus.
"In a worst case scenario Zika would become endemic in Latin America in the long-term, which would mean smaller, frequent outbreaks," he said. "A key issue is we don't understand why the Zika virus affected Latin America in such an explosive way.
"One possibility is climate may have in some way aided spread of the virus, as spread coincided with an El Nino event. Genetic mutation of the virus might also have played a role, although early data currently give limited support for this hypothesis."
He added that more research is needed: "One research priority is to fully understand the extent of Zika transmission, and what proportion of people in Latin America – and across the globe have been infected.
"To do this we need to assess past exposure to Zika by testing blood from representative samples of at-risk populations for the presence of antibodies to the virus. We and other groups are working on such studies at the moment.
"There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers – and only through a coordinated global research effort will we find the answers we desperately need."
The work was funded by the Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the UK NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology at Imperial College London.
Further information regarding the research can be found here.
(JP/LM)
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